The Nigerian retail sector has entered a significant phase of digital integration and consumer adaptation as of late January 2026. According to the Nigeria E-commerce Market Share Analysis (2026-2031) by Research and Markets, the sector is projected to reach a value of 10.49 billion dollars this year.
This growth is increasingly driven by social commerce on platforms like WhatsApp and TikTok, which have evolved into primary sales engines. Research from PayNXT360 suggests that social commerce transactions are outpacing the broader market, with millions of Nigerians now spending several hours daily on high-engagement social apps that feature seamless checkout options.
Consumer behavior is also being reshaped by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook, which projects a GDP growth of 4.49 percent and a sharp deceleration of inflation to an average of 12.94 percent.
Despite this optimistic forecast, a recent Lagos Food Market Survey by Nairametrics highlights that while prices for 72 percent of tracked items like tomatoes and peppers have eased post-festive peak, core staples remain a budget strain. This has led to a surge in “value brands” and smaller packaging formats, with FMCG manufacturers scaling up production of affordable 50 to 200 Naira units to maintain volume in a price-sensitive market.
Physical retail is simultaneously evolving through omnichannel strategies and rural expansion. Jumia’s 2025 E-commerce in Rural Areas Report confirms that rural districts now account for nearly half of all packages delivered on their platform.
This expansion is supported by over 350 pickup stations and the JForce network of 32,000 active community agents. These agents serve as critical trust-builders, helping new shoppers navigate digital storefronts. Additionally, the adoption of Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) models has spiked in the electronics category, allowing urban earners to manage disposable income as they transition toward the digital-first habits highlighted in the Webhaptic African Consumer Trends 2026 report.
As the year progresses, the focus for Nigerian retailers is shifting toward “value engineering” and brand trust. The BusinessDay Go Local Intelligence report identifies digital commerce as a core growth driver for 2026, urging local brands to integrate immersive creator-led content into their sales funnels.
With the CBN betting on structural reforms to stabilize the exchange rate, the winners of 2026 will likely be the businesses that combine this new digital efficiency with reliable last-mile delivery and transparent pricing.
 by Research and Markets, the sector is projected to reach a value of 10.49 billion dollars this year.){kind=link}