Nigeria Bond Yields Decline As Real Interest Rate Gap Widens

FGN Bond For Jan. 2021 Oversubscribed

Yields on Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) bonds edged lower in the secondary market on Wednesday as mild bargain hunting emerged across the curve ahead of next week’s Debt Management Office (DMO) primary auction.

Trading activity was largely quiet but carried a bullish undertone, with selective demand at the short (-2 bps) and mid (-1 bp) segments of the curve, according to fixed-income traders at CardinalStone Securities Limited.

Investors showed particular interest in bonds maturing in 2026, 2033, and 2034, driving the average yield down by one basis point to 16.64%. Analysts noted isolated trades on the May 2033s at 17.50% and February 2034s at 17.20%, though most offers went unexecuted.

Across the benchmark curve, yields contracted on the JAN-2026 (-9 bps) and JUN-2033 (-5 bps) instruments, while the long end remained unchanged.

Looking ahead, sentiment in the fixed-income market is expected to stay mixed to bearish as investors react to the higher stop rate on the one-year NTB and position cautiously for the DMO auction. The debt office will offer ₦80 billion in reopening bonds and an additional ₦80 billion in fresh supply in August, doubling its bond issuance compared to the July auction.

Analysts said rates could face repricing pressure as disinflation lifts the real interest rate to 5.62%, with the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 27.5%, well above the inflation rate of 21.88%.