By Boluwatife Oshadiya | October 26, 2026
Key Points
- The naira weakened to ₦1,361.8394 per US dollar at the NFEM from ₦1,332.2582 at the beginning of the week
- Nigeria’s external reserves rose 0.09% week on week to $55.14 billion
- Cowry Asset Limited expects sustained FX demand and market uncertainty to keep the naira under pressure
Main Story
The naira weakened to ₦1,361.8394 per US dollar at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM), as market participants anticipated increased demand for foreign currency ahead of the 2027 general election and year-end payments.
Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) data put the opening rate for the week at ₦1,332.2582 per dollar. The currency also weakened in the parallel market, where it traded at about ₦1,370 per dollar amid increased demand from informal-market participants.
Market analysts cited in the supplied report expect political spending ahead of the 2027 election to add to dollar demand. Non-bank corporate demand is also projected to rise as businesses meet year-end payment obligations and pay for imports. These are market expectations, rather than confirmed estimates of the volume of additional demand.
Nigeria’s external reserves increased by 0.09% week on week to $55.14 billion, according to the report. The marginal rise offers some support to the country’s external liquidity position, although it has not prevented the naira from weakening during the period.
International oil prices also faced competing pressures. Brent crude was on course for a weekly gain of about $6 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose from around $99 per barrel on Monday to above $100 during the week. The report linked international price pressures to escalating Middle East tensions and possible supply disruptions following Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabian infrastructure, including facilities operated by Saudi Aramco.
Nigeria’s Bonny Light crude, however, fell 1.98% to $123.97 per barrel. The divergent movements in crude benchmarks could affect the outlook for Nigeria’s oil earnings and foreign exchange inflows.
What’s Being Said
Cowry Asset Limited expects the naira to remain under pressure because of persistent foreign exchange demand and market uncertainty. The investment firm also identifies the marginal increase in external reserves as a potential support for currency stability.
The supplied material does not contain a verified verbatim quote from Cowry Asset or an independent analyst. No direct quotation has therefore been attributed to the firm.
What’s Next
- Market participants will monitor the naira’s movement in the official and parallel markets as year-end and election-related FX demand evolves
- Changes in global crude prices and developments in the Middle East will remain relevant to Nigeria’s oil earnings and potential FX inflows
- Further movements in external reserves will help indicate whether the country’s external liquidity position is strengthening
The Bottom Line:
The naira faces competing pressures: expected seasonal and political demand for dollars on one side, and a modest improvement in external reserves alongside elevated oil prices on the other. The direction of the currency will depend on how these forces translate into actual FX supply and demand.
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