First Holdco Plc is facing a challenging earnings outlook for 2025, with analysts warning that rising credit impairment charges from unwinding forbearance exposures could weigh heavily on profits.
CardinalStone Securities Limited, in its latest equity note, projected that the group’s net profit will fall by 18.6% year-on-year to N540.2 billion, even as gross earnings grow by just 4.7% to N3.4 trillion. The firm also revised its 12-month target price for First Holdco shares upward to N35.31 from N28.21, implying a potential upside of 7.5% from the stock’s N32.85 reference price on the Nigerian Exchange.
The financial services group, which has already raised N147 billion through a rights issue as part of a planned N500 billion recapitalisation programme, is expected to launch the next phase by raising N350 billion via private placement of shares. CardinalStone said the move will strengthen capital buffers and support dividend prospects.
Analysts noted that First Holdco’s asset quality has deteriorated, with its non-performing loan ratio climbing to 12.9% in H1 2025, up from 10.2% in 2024, following the reclassification of two major exposures. Net impairment charges surged by 99.4% year-on-year to N185.4 billion in the same period, pushing the NPL coverage ratio down to 38.8%.
Despite a forecast 20.2% rise in interest income to N2.9 trillion, CardinalStone warned that modest growth in interest-earning assets and weakness in non-interest revenue could limit earnings momentum. The group’s pre-tax profit is projected to decline by 15.2% to N675.2 billion in 2025.
The report stressed that First Holdco’s 2025 performance will depend on its ability to manage provisioning costs while benefiting from resilient core banking income.
