Nigeria’s headline inflation rate is expected to spike sharply to 33.6 per cent in December 2025, effectively ending an eight-month stretch of slowing price pressures, according to projections by Afrinvest Limited.
In a pre-inflation update released ahead of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) consumer price index report, the investment firm attributed the anticipated surge largely to base effects stemming from the rebased CPI framework introduced in December 2024.
Afrinvest estimates that headline inflation will jump from 14.45 per cent in November 2025 to 33.6 per cent in December, representing a sharp reversal of the disinflationary trend observed for most of the year.
Between April and November 2025, Nigeria recorded eight consecutive months of easing inflation. Over that period, the headline rate declined steadily from 24.2 per cent year on year in March to 14.5 per cent in November, reflecting moderation across food, energy, and core inflation components.
The November figure marked the lowest inflation reading since the CPI rebasing exercise and represented the softest inflation outcome since October 2020, when headline inflation stood at 14.2 per cent under the previous methodology.
Afrinvest explained that the December 2024 rebasing significantly altered the CPI composition. The weighting of food and non-alcoholic beverages was reduced to 40.1 per cent from 51.8 per cent, while energy weighting fell to 6.4 per cent from 10.8 per cent. In contrast, the core inflation component expanded substantially to 53.5 per cent from 37.4 per cent.
This structural adjustment, the firm noted, helped dampen inflation readings through much of 2025, even as market prices for several staples and household essentials remained elevated.
“Using our model, which compares December 2025 price levels against the rebased CPI baseline of December 2024, we project headline inflation to rise sharply to 33.6 per cent year on year, primarily due to base effects,” Afrinvest stated.
On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation is estimated at 2.4 per cent, up from 1.2 per cent in November. This would mark the strongest monthly increase since March 2025, when inflation rose by 3.9 per cent.
Both food and core inflation are expected to drive the increase. Food inflation is projected to rise by 2.7 per cent month on month in December, compared to 1.1 per cent in November. On a year-on-year basis, food inflation is expected to surge to 31.7 per cent from 11.1 per cent, reflecting base effects and heightened year-end demand for staples and frozen foods.
Core inflation is estimated to increase to 1.9 per cent month on month from 1.3 per cent in November. On an annual basis, core inflation is projected to rise sharply to 34.5 per cent from 18.0 per cent, also driven largely by statistical base effects.
Afrinvest estimates Nigeria’s average headline inflation rate for full-year 2025 at 22.1 per cent, significantly above the Federal Government’s budget assumption of 15.8 per cent.
Looking ahead, analysts expect inflation to moderate in 2026. Afrinvest projects the average inflation rate to decline to 15.4 per cent next year, supported by relative exchange rate stability and further statistical normalization under the rebased CPI framework.
