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Oil Trades Below $42 Per Barrel on High Production Output

Red metal barrels against blue sky.

Oil prices traded below $42 in Asia on Monday, November 30  ahead of an OPEC meeting and the release of data on China’s important manufacturing sector later in the week.

The market will be watching whether members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which meets on December 4, reduce the currently high output levels and ease a crude supply glut that has depressed prices for more than a year.

According to analysts, traders will also tune in to two key speeches by US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen this week for signs on the timing of a hike in US interest rates.

November data on China’s industrial sector is released tomorrow, with traders looking for clues on the health of the world’s top energy consumer.

At around 0230 GMT, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate for delivery in January was up 10 cents at $41.81 and Brent crude for January was trading five cents lower at $44.81 a barrel.

“We expect the focus to return to the timing of the US interest rate rise, with two key speeches by Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, on Wednesday and Thursday,” Capital Economics said in a market commentary.

Analysts expect Fed policymakers to raise interest rates during their December meeting, a move that will boost the dollar and make dollarpriced oil more expensive, denting demand and prices.

OPEC’s Friday meeting is expected to focus on the global crude oversupply, the return of Iranian oil to the market after the lifting of western economic sanctions and whether the cartel will cut production to boost prices.

“However, comments from key OPEC ministers still seem relatively sanguine. Also, it is not clear that even if OPEC did cut its production target, actual output would fall, given the cartel is already producing well above its current target,” Capital Economics said.

The price of OPEC basket of 12 crudes stood at $39.08 per barrel on Friday, compared with $39.65 the previous day, according to OPEC Secretariat calculations.

The new OPEC Reference Basket of Crudes (ORB) is made up of the following: Saharan Blend (Algeria), Girassol (Angola), Oriente (Ecuador), Iran Heavy (Islamic Republic of Iran), Basra Light (Iraq), Kuwait Export (Kuwait), Es Sider (Libya), Bonny Light (Nigeria), Qatar Marine (Qatar), Arab Light (Saudi Arabia), Murban (UAE) and Merey (Venezuela).


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