Experts Revise Nigeria’s 2015 GDP Growth Lower than Rate of Population Expansion

Nigeria's GDP Grows By 5% In Q2 2021

Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product growth projection for 2015 has been revised downwards to 2.8 per cent.

The new growth estimates 2 basis points are lower than the estimated population growth rate of 3 percent in 2015,

Investment Bank Renaissance Capital responsible for the revision said: “We revise down our 2015 growth forecast to 2.8% for two reasons: 1) 1 H15 growth of 3.1% year on year (YoY) came in below our 2015 forecast of 3.4%; and 2) we expect supply constraints, related to FX restrictions and the de facto import ban, to undermine growth in 2H15.

“As population growth is c. 3% pa, this implies negative per-capita income growth, which acts as a drag on the consumer sector.”

The manufacturing sector, which accounts for 10 percent of GDP, contracted for a second consecutive quarter, by 3.8 percent YoY in 2Q15, compared to growth of 14.0 per cent YoY a year earlier.

This comes after double-digit growth in 2011-2014, and the decline is largely attributable to the largest manufacturing sub-sector, food, beverages and tobacco, which contracted by 5.9 percent YoY in 2Q15, compared to growth of 5.2 percent YoY in 2Q14.

The textiles sub-sector has also seen two successive quarters of negative growth.


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